El Niño Weather May Limit Atlantic Hurricanes This Season

While forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center say to expect a below-normal 2026 hurricane season for the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf, the Coast Guard encouraged maritime facilities and vessels to review their severe weather plans and to begin preparing for hurricane season.

The 2026 hurricane season officially began June 1 and will conclude November 30.

Climate Prediction Center meteorologists expect a 10% chance of an above normal hurricane season, a 35% chance of a near-normal season and 55% chance of a below-normal season due, in part, to anticipated El Niño conditions.

El Niño and La Niña are, respectively, the warm and cool phases of a climate pattern across the tropical Pacific known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, often referred to as ENSO, according to the National Ocean Service, another division of NOAA. The pattern shifts back and forth between the cooler and warmer phases every two to seven years, with a neutral phase between them that can last for months or years.

NOAA’s National Weather Service predicted in mid-May that El Niño is likely to emerge by July and continue through the winter.

During El Niño conditions, more storm surge and higher rainfall amounts along the Gulf and Southeast coasts are typical.

“Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,” National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said in the agency’s hurricane season forecast announcement. “That is why it’s essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now. It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season.”

While El Niño is expected to develop and intensify during the hurricane season, competing factors are at play. Ocean temperatures in the Atlantic are expected to be slightly warmer than normal, and trade winds are likely weaker than average. El Niño conditions tend to support fewer tropical storms and hurricanes, while warmer ocean temperatures and low winds support a more active year, the weather service said.

The National Weather Service is forcasting 8 to 14 named storms with winds of 39 mph. or more. Of those, three to six are expected to become hurricanes, which require winds of 74 mph. or higher, including one to three major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph. or higher. NOAA has a 70% confidence in the ranges, it said. An average season has 14 named storms with seven hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity based on large-scale weather and climate patterns. It does not indicate where or when any storms may affect land, as that is determined by short-term and variable weather patterns. The outlook is not a landfall forecast.

“Preparing now for hurricane season — and not waiting for a storm to threaten — is essential for staying ahead of any storm,” Graham said.

Coast Guard Recommendations

The Coast Guard stressed the importance of knowing hurricane risk for each area, saying it is not just a coastal problem, with rain, wind, water and tornadoes potentially occurring far inland from where a hurricane or tropical storm makes landfall.

The Houston-Galveston Sector also issued a directive concerning port conditions during severe weather. As the Gulf Coast may not provide adequate safe refuge for vessels in approaching storms, the sector’s captain of the port, N.D. Rodriguez, said he may direct all capable vessels to make timely departures from port ahead of tropical storm conditions, as necessary. All vessels over 500 tons should plan to depart unless suffering a casualty that makes departure impossible, he said. A “Declaration of Intent to Remain in Port” is required for any vessels over 500 gross tons requesting to remain in port. Smaller vessels are to make plans and to be prepared for port closure, he said.

Regulated commercial facilities are also directed to follow the sector’s Heavy Weather Port Conditions. Rodriguez requested that pre-storm assessments include any vessels allowed to remain at the facility during a storm. All containers, storage tanks, pallets and other items or equipment that could create a risk or hazard in a high-wind environment must be secured in accordance with regulations, industry standards and best practices, the Coast Guard said.

After the storm, waterfront facilities will be required to report conditions of their docks, berths, wharves and piers as soon as possible using the “Facility Post Storm Self-Assessment Checklist.”

More information is available in Coast Guard Houston-Galveston Marine Safety Information Bulletin 26-05, issued June 1.