Record Corn Crop Boosts Barge Volumes
In our last issue, economist Ken Eriksen showed how record corn yields and exports boosted U.S. barge volumes and rates (See Horizons, August 18, 2025).
The big surprise for ag markets in the August 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates was the bump in corn yields. At a record 188.8 bushels per acre, the season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast was 7.8 bushels per acre higher than July’s projection. While this was a glowing testament to the efficiency of U.S. farmers, it was mixed news for growers in a world where corn prices have been chronically low.
However, that boost in yields was accompanied by an export boost that soaked up some of that surplus. That, too, was not entirely expected, since China did not notably increase purchases. Instead, U.S. corn saw increased export sales to South Korea, Mexico, Japan and Spain, as well as numerous smaller gains from a variety of other countries, including those in South America and the European Union.
Taking grains and soybeans together in the WASDE, the USDA forecast U.S. exports to total 147.6 million metric tons for the 2024-2025 marketing year that ends August 31. If realized, that total would be 15 percent higher than 2023-2024 and about 28 million, or 23 percent, more than the recent bottom in 2022-2023. For the new marketing year starting September 1, exports are forecast to total 149 million metric tons during 2025-2026, a slight increase of 1 percent. Total U.S. exports in 2025-2026 are projected to pull back as soybean volumes weaken, offsetting gains in other crops.
What accounted for the export boost? Could recent trade deals have played a part? Japan and South Korea have both signed renewed trade deals with the United States to lower tariffs. The tariff on Korean goods will be 15 percent instead of a threatened 25 percent. Japan, too, announced a big deal in late July and will also enjoy 15 percent tariffs. Spain is part of the EU, which negotiates trade collectively, but the EU also saw a boost in demand. Spain’s economy minister visited Washington in April to support EU–U.S. trade talks amid a 90-day U.S. tariff pause.
Most analysts, though, say a number of ordinary market factors were responsible for the rise in corn exports. The dollar weakened slightly against other currencies, making already-low corn prices more attractive. Brazil enjoyed a record harvest of its safrinha, or second-planting, corn, but increased domestic consumption removed some of that from competition in world markets.
Whatever the reason, barge haulers enjoyed a welcome bump in traffic for one of their main commodities. What’s more, America’s marine highways have once again enabled affordable, efficient, green barge transportation to serve world ag markets.
